923
FXUS62 KCAE 141826
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN
SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL, BUT DO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF THE COLD EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE THE CALM WEATHER
INTO WEDNESDAY.
A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TURN WINDS A BIT MORE
WESTERLY, BUT OTHERWISE NO NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.
SOME MOISTURE ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING, INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MORE DEFINED SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH IN AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE CONSEQUENTLY A BIT OF A TRICKY PICTURE.
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND THEREFORE NO SURFACE LAYER DECOUPLING. SO
STEERED TOWARDS THE HIGHEST END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT, DROPPING TO AROUND 30 F ACROSS THE AREA (RATHER THAN
THE MID-20'S LIKE THE MEAN OF GUIDANCE GIVEN TYPICAL BIASES).
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE MAY STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER, SO WE COULD SEE A PRETTY STEEP LOW TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THURSDAY.
COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN EXITING DRY
COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AN EXPECTED WEDGE
TYPE FLOW PATTERN OUT OF THE NORTH IN LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
HIGHS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S. THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA WILL AT LEAST REACH THE
50S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY AIR, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE. READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT
THE CSRA WHERE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOR THURSDAY, IT WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
REMAIN BELOW ANY LAKE WIND CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND.
GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY NOT PUSH THROUGH
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, SO HIGHS MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP, GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. SOME DRY WEATHER MAY OCCUR BY MONDAY INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
NOTE: AS FOR JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, YES WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS, ALONG WITH ANY WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL JUST BEYOND OUR
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES,
AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN WITH THE BLENDS THAT FAR OUT.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH THE REST OF YOU.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING WINDS
WESTERLY BY THE EVENING BUT REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS WELL BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY TURN MORE
NORTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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