721
FXUS62 KCAE 150043
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
743 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN
SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL, BUT DO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF THE COLD EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA INTO THE CSRA. SOME LOWER
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH A
BROADER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WINDS HAVE RELAXED A BIT THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT REMAIN
CALM FOR LONG AS A 30 KNOT FORECAST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING
WINDS BACK UP A BIT AND HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD DROP OFF AGAIN
NEAR DAWN TUESDAY. THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT LOOK TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION TO UPPER 20S CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND AROUND 30 IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THURSDAY.
COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN EXITING DRY
COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AN EXPECTED WEDGE
TYPE FLOW PATTERN OUT OF THE NORTH IN LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
HIGHS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S. THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA WILL AT LEAST REACH THE
50S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY AIR, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE. READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT
THE CSRA WHERE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOR THURSDAY, IT WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
REMAIN BELOW ANY LAKE WIND CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND.
GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY NOT PUSH THROUGH
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, SO HIGHS MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIP, GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. SOME DRY WEATHER MAY OCCUR BY MONDAY INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
NOTE: AS FOR JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, YES WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS, ALONG WITH ANY WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL JUST BEYOND OUR
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES,
AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN WITH THE BLENDS THAT FAR OUT.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH THE REST OF YOU.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
..VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN GEORGIA INDICATE CEILINGS ARE BETWEEN 15K AND
25K FEET AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FEW TO SCT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 3 TO 8 KNOTS. SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A
FEW PASSING CIRRIFORM CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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