709
FXUS62 KCAE 151732
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1232 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
INTO THE EASTERN US. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.
MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON: SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWARD. WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA,
WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS REMAINING
HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
JUST ABOUT TOPPED OUT IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH COLD
ADVECTION MOVING IN. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES PUSHING INTO THE AREA. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER SUNSET. WITH HOW
DRY THE AIRMASS IS, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SET UP OVERNIGHT. DID GO ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE BLEND THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH BRINGS LOWS
INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH IN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR. ACROSS THE SOUTH, READINGS AROUND 30 TO THE
UPPER 20S EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. BREEZY THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES FROM
THURSDAY TO 00Z ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES
INDICATING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
ON THURSDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH,
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. ON
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S. MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS
WEAK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO WE EXPECT RAINFALL TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUN NIGHT AND NEXT WEEK
- MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
REX BLOCKING CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS WEEK. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE PICKED UP AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL US INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DEEP, SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
PWAT VALUES RISE FROM ONE THIRD OF AN INCH FRIDAY EVENING TO 1-1.3
INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. DIVERGENCE ALOFT, CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AND DEEP MOISTURE ALL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WEAK
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LIMITS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
WILL TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND DRY, COLD AIR TAKES ITS PLACE.
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH (NEAR THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
MINIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL DIP INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL
FILTER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THERE IS VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. 90 PERCENT OF THE
NBM MEMBERS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OR LOWER FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING COLDER
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A GROWING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF ECMWF MEMBERS AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT OF GEFS
MEMBERS RECORD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO
SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS A SITUATION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
NEED MONITORING. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP AND AMOUNTS, OR LACK THEREOF. THIS
ULTIMATELY IS KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE END
OF THE LONG TERM SINCE THE CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN
PERIOD IS LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY IN THE TRACK OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MAY BRING THE SOUTHEAST SOME FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIP NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME THIN
SCATTERED CIRRUS, BUT THAT WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF
TONIGHT. WITH HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH
THAT SAID, CAN NOT RULE OUT THE USUAL PATCHY STEAM FOG ALONG
THE RIVER NEAR AGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. ONCE MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY LATE MORNING, WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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