353
FXUS62 KCAE 190602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, VERY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ON TUESDAY,
A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
WINTRY POTENTIAL INCREASING, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LIFT
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING WITH PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOVE AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH TO NEAR A HALF INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. REMAINING MILD TONIGHT WITH CLOUDINESS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
- THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL MOVE IN MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE
BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE
NEAR THE REGION IN THE MORNING BUT WILL BE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BUT
ONCE THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND NOON, EXPECT
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MIXING.
WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND A VERY STRONG RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST. TEMPS
MAXING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AS
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR MASS (1040 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE NORTH) WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
THIS IS INDICATED BY THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. EC EFI AND NAEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AIRMASS WITH A
CHARACTERISTIC "HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BUT LIKELY NOT HISTORIC"
SIGNAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE STAYING IN THE 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH FULL INSOLATION DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. NOTE 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MULTIPLE IMPACTFUL HAZARDS EXPECTED.
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR TUES.-THURS.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
WEATHER TUES. INTO WED.
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR TUES.-THURS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO CONTINUE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS COLD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. ALL SIGNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE IN
PLACE FOR THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD. THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE
REINFORCED BY A PASSING COASTAL LOW (MORE ON THAT IN NEXT PARAGRAPH),
RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR STICKS AROUND INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON MIGHT
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S, AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
(~50%) THAT MANY AREAS WON'T TOP THE FREEZING MARK ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH SUCH A COLD STRETCH EXPECTED, TAKE THE NECESSARY MEASURES TO
STAY WARM, PREVENT WATER PIPES FROM BURSTING, AND LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
WEATHER TUES. INTO WED.
CONFIDENCE OF INGREDIENTS BEING IN PLACE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR IS VERY LIKELY TO BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA, THEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINTER PRECIPITATION, LIKELY
SNOW, LOOKS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
AMOUNT. FOR EXAMPLE, THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING 80-90% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS ONLY SHOWING A 20-30% CHANCE IN
THE SAME AREAS. THE NBM AND LREF ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING ABOUT A
50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO ME
GIVEN THE FORECAST SET UP. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH REMAINING NEAR
THE AREA, SOME REALLY DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE, WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH. BECAUSE
OF THIS DRY AIR, THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF
BETWEEN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT LOOKS TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION IS THE SPEED THAT THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. AS OF NOW, IT'S LOOKING LIKE
A TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, A
POINT THAT ALSO NEEDS MENTIONING IS THAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE INTO THURSDAY, ANY SNOW THAT IS ABLE TO FALL/ACCUMULATE IS
LIKELY TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. SO BE PREPARED TO
DEAL WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS BEYOND THE TYPICAL SNOWFALL IN THIS
AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID TO
LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. VFR AFTER 18Z.
LOW PRESSURE OVER GA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. AT 06Z, SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED FROM THE CSRA NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES. STRATUS BUILD DOWN HAS RESULTED IN VERY LOW
CEILINGS, BELOW 500 FT. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO CRASHED WITH
AREAS BELOW 1 MILE. THESE LOW CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z, THEN IMPROVE MAINLY AFTER 14Z AS
MIXING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE OTHER ISSUE
IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THROUGH 12Z. MODELS SUGGEST
SOUTH-WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FT AROUND 35 KTS WITH NEAR
CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN ONCE THE
INVERSION BEGINS TO BREAK AFTER 12Z. THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 17Z-18Z AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT COULD RETURN ON BY LATE
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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