770
FXUS62 KCAE 160751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MID-WEEK WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AFTER SUNRISE.
- LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 7AM AND NOON.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH AND WEST. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50 EXIST WEST OF IT. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
MODERATE IN THE WESTERN CWA AS THE BOUNDARY FURTHER ERODES
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION TO THE TEMPERATURES, AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST NORTH OF THE WEDGE AT LEAST THROUGH 5 AM WHEN WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING AND BETTER MIXING AT THE SURFACE OCCURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN CSRA TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY
TRACKING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NOON.
INSTABILITY ALONG THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK, BUT AN
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF BETWEEN 50-70 KNOTS AT 850 MB
WILL PRODUCE A HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECEDING LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. THESE WINDS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH THAT, SOME INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS ALSO INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEEING THE LOW-LEVEL JET'S WINDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT, CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE
LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC WINDS BOTH IN ADVANCE AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY,
A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING AT 5AM TO COVER
THE PREFRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
LINE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER THE
EASTERN CWA, WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISE OUT OF THE 40S AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE 60S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION, RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING,
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MECHANICALLY MIX
DOWN 25-35 MPH WINDS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, ALTHOUGH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TURN MUCH
COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-DRIER WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
COLD ADVECTION LINGERS EARLY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE
DISTRIBUTION FOR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HREF INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT PWATS REMAIN AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWS WILL DIP TO AROUND FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
FLOW IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US LEADING TO GRADUAL MOISTURE
INCREASE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MILDER LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER MIDWEEK IN THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
-COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING MSLP WILL
BE AROUND 1052MB, ABOVE THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
A DEEPENING TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF
AND STRENGTHENING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH
CONSENSUS CATEGORICAL POPS IN BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-20 AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT THE COLD LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW, TYPICAL IN A
CAD SETUP WITH WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
FREEZING RAIN (GREATER THAN 0.01") BUT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING RAIN WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS (AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). PROBABILISTIC
WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX (WSSI) INDICATES AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER AND THIS
WOULD LIKELY BE GENERALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY BELOW FREEZING. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS
TO IRON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COLD
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW -0.7 TO
-0.9 FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT, SOME AREAS OF FOG EXIST AS A SURFACE
WEDGE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THAT FRONT MOVES WEST OF TAF
SITES, HOWEVER IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS INDICATED ON VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING, SO MAINTAINED LLWS AT ALL TAF
SITES.
BY SUNRISE, THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE CSRA
SITES OF AGS/DNL, THEN RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH CAE/CUB,
THEN OGB, BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY NOON. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SURFACE WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BE BREEZY BOTH
BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TURN WESTERLY. SKIES CLEAR OUT, LLWS DIMINISHES, AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A APPROACHING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-037-115-116-135-136.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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