406
FXUS62 KCAE 161808
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MID- WEEK
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDY CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH GA INTO THE UPSTATE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF CAE AT 18Z. IT WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30 TO 40
KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO, STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. STAYED CLOSE TO THE
NBM TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING BY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-DRIER WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
COLD ADVECTION LINGERS EARLY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE
DISTRIBUTION FOR TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HREF INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT PWATS REMAIN AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWS WILL DIP TO AROUND FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
FLOW IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FOR TUESDAY WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US LEADING TO GRADUAL MOISTURE
INCREASE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MILDER LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER MIDWEEK IN THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
-COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING MSLP WILL
BE AROUND 1052MB, ABOVE THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
A DEEPENING TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF
AND STRENGTHENING AS IT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH
CONSENSUS CATEGORICAL POPS IN BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-20 AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT THE COLD LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW, TYPICAL IN A
CAD SETUP WITH WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
FREEZING RAIN (GREATER THAN 0.01") BUT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING RAIN WITH STILL UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS (AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). PROBABILISTIC
WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX (WSSI) INDICATES AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER AND THIS
WOULD LIKELY BE GENERALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY BELOW FREEZING. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS
TO IRON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COLD
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW -0.7 TO
-0.9 FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT IN
GENERAL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING TO THE COAST. LINES OF CUMULUS ARE SPREADING EAST
FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THE HRRR IS
SUGGESTING MAYBE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE AGS AND DNL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. SO FAVORING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z. BY 06Z, EXPECT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A APPROACHING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
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