927
FXUS62 KCAE 161925
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A QUITE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS A RESULT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. VERY COLD AND AIR FILLS BACK IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDY CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH GA INTO THE UPSTATE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF CAE AT 18Z. IT WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30 TO 40
KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO, STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. STAYED CLOSE TO THE
NBM TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING BY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY FILL INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
SUNDAY'S STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MONDAY WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW AVERAGE, DESPITE SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
TEMPS MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40'S AND LOW 50'S. MUCH
THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL FROM
850-250MB OVER THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN, AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP ALOFT, BUT AGAIN TEMPS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- COLD AIR FILLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A SHORT WAVE WILL BREAK OFF THE PACIFIC JET AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME COLD-DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A CLASSIC WEDGE SETUP
LIKE WE USUALLY SEE BEFORE ICE EVENTS; THE EXTREMELY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED FAR FROM A CLASSIC POSITION, BACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND NOT THE SELF-REINFORCING
NORTHEASTERLY INHERENT TO A TRUE CAD EVENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
SETUP FOR SOME POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IS A BIT ATYPICAL WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW ITSELF CAUSING ENOUGH PRESSURE FALLS TO VEER
WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEREFORE STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION, AND THEN PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO
DEVELOP SOME IN-SITU WEDGING. GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG ON THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHLY SENSITIVE
SETUP; EC AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE TENDED TO BE THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS, WITH THE REST OF GUIDANCE WARMER WITH ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BACK ACROSS NC. OVERALL, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN- SNOW MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE FRONT OF THE
SYSTEM AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
LATE WEDNESDAY. ONLY LIQUID RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, VERY COLD AIR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. LIKE MANY OF OUR COLD SYSTEMS THIS SEASON, THIS
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A RECORD SETTER BY ANY MEANS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS; EC EFI HIGHLIGHTS THIS NICELY
WITH CONSISTENT HIGH AND LOW TEMP EFI'S BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT IN
GENERAL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING TO THE COAST. LINES OF CUMULUS ARE SPREADING EAST
FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THE HRRR IS
SUGGESTING MAYBE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE AGS AND DNL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. SO FAVORING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z. BY 06Z, EXPECT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A APPROACHING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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