495
FXUS62 KCAE 162338
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A QUITE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS A RESULT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED. VERY COLD AND AIR FILLS BACK IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY WINDS OVER AREA LAKES TONIGHT
- TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY DROP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING LAKE WIND CONDITIONS IN THE HOURS
FOLLOWING THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRED AT 6 PM BUT SHOULD BE
INFREQUENT. EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS COLD
ADVECTION DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOW 30S BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY FILL INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
SUNDAY'S STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT MONDAY WITH TEMPS
FALLING BELOW AVERAGE, DESPITE SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
TEMPS MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40'S AND LOW 50'S. MUCH
THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL FROM
850-250MB OVER THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN, AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP ALOFT, BUT AGAIN TEMPS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- COLD AIR FILLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A SHORT WAVE WILL BREAK OFF THE PACIFIC JET AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME COLD-DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A CLASSIC WEDGE SETUP
LIKE WE USUALLY SEE BEFORE ICE EVENTS; THE EXTREMELY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED FAR FROM A CLASSIC POSITION, BACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND NOT THE SELF-REINFORCING
NORTHEASTERLY INHERENT TO A TRUE CAD EVENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
SETUP FOR SOME POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IS A BIT ATYPICAL WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW ITSELF CAUSING ENOUGH PRESSURE FALLS TO VEER
WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEREFORE STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION, AND THEN PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO
DEVELOP SOME IN-SITU WEDGING. GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG ON THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHLY SENSITIVE
SETUP; EC AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE TENDED TO BE THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS, WITH THE REST OF GUIDANCE WARMER WITH ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BACK ACROSS NC. OVERALL, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN- SNOW MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE FRONT OF THE
SYSTEM AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
LATE WEDNESDAY. ONLY LIQUID RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, VERY COLD AIR RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. LIKE MANY OF OUR COLD SYSTEMS THIS SEASON, THIS
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A RECORD SETTER BY ANY MEANS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS; EC EFI HIGHLIGHTS THIS NICELY
WITH CONSISTENT HIGH AND LOW TEMP EFI'S BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD....
GUSTY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS GRADUALLY FALL ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... AN APPROACHING SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page