067
FXUS62 KCAE 171129
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT TODAY. A QUITE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS A RESULT WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED. VERY COLD AND AIR FILLS BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
- TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH LIMITED WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THEN EXPECTED
AFTER SUNSET. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL BE STRONGER. HIGHS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S, WHICH
RETURNS THE REGION TO BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE AROUND 30 UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. WHILE PWATS WILL BE LOW TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
(HREF MEAN INDICATING BELOW 0.4 INCH), GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CSRA.
WEDNESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF WILL
MOVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS BUT THE SYSTEM HAS GENERALLY TRENDED A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE LEADING TO OVERALL LESS QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A
RELATIVELY COLD RAIN BUT THERE COULD BE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE WITH A
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT LOW ENOUGH
FOR IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ENS/GEFS/GEPS MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT
IN WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING WITH RAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST, COLD
ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COOLING AT
THE SURFACE AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST LIKELY
CHANCE OF THIS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-77. IMPACTS LIKELY
REMAIN TO BE LIMITED WITH PROBABILISTIC WSSI SHOWING AROUND 40
TO 50 PERCENT OF MINOR IMPACTS WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN DROPPING TO MARGINALLY
BELOW FREEZING, ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND COLDER AIR PUSHING IN FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AIR FILLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT IN PWATS REMAINING
BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND. FAIRLY LIMITED SPREAD IN BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE). WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
ROBUST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL TO GET CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT, WIND
CHILLS REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHICH WILL HELP TO LOWER SUSTAIN WINDS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
THROUGH SUNRISE. GENERALLY THE TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST, THEN TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKY AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTING
INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... AN APPROACHING SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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