388
FXUS62 KCAE 190629
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF SC.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND VERY COLD AIR SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON STRONG GUSTY WINDS, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH/CENTRAL MIDLANDS. A VERY COLD AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
IN THE CSRA.
DEEPENING TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WESTERN GULF. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE LOW ACROSS THE FA
AND GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. AS MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT,
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF
RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MAINLY IN THE CSRA, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED SO MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE, WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
- THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES EARLY THURSDAY.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BROAD BUT WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AND PWAT'S STEADILY INCREASE OVER 0.8". THE TREND OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS CONTINUED IN THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE, WITH THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TRANSFERRING OFF
THE COAST. THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE VERY BORDERLINE
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN, GENERALLY
32-35 F IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. THE CLOUD DEPTH AND
TEMPERATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ICE GROWTH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A
PERSISTENT WARM NOSE WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH NEGATIVE ENERGY BELOW THE
WARM NOSE TO POSSIBLE CAUSE SOME REFREEZING AND SLEET. SO A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY, AGAIN IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
LOW TRANSITIONS EAST, ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW WILL HELP GENERATE SOME WEAK SHOWERS, THAT MAY
YIELD FREEZING RAIN. CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THE COLD ADVECTION ONCE THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE WILL
DROP SURFACE TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. SO THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LIQUID PRODUCING CLOUDS AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING WILL YIELD A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. THE SETUP IS
VERY SENSITIVE IN GENERAL TO SMALL CHANGES IN SURFACE TEMP AND
MOISTURE, BUT FOR NOW A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP IN LANCASTER,
CHESTERFIELD, LEE, AND KERSHAW COUNTIES FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF THE
FREEZING RAIN. OVERALL, IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED FROM THIS EVENT
AND THE COLUMBIA METRO AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE
ANY IMPACTFUL FROZEN PRECIP.
AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST, STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST
FLOW, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME WINTRY MIX REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH, BUT IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIMITED. CLOUD DEPTHS ARE VERY SHALLOW, BUT COLD, AND
LAPSE RATES ARE DRY ADIABATIC BELOW THE VORT MAX, SO DEPENDING ON
EXACT SURFACE TEMPS, WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GRAUPEL, SNOW, OR
FREEZING RAIN. REGARDLESS VERY COLD TEMPS WILL FILL IN ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 10'S AND LOW 20'S WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SLOW WARM UP.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING
QUIETER WEATHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BEHIND WED/THUR SYSTEM, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS TROUGHING SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARDS US. IT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF FRIDAY NIGHT IS AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SO
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO BEGIN
MODERATING AS WE HEAD TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL GLANCING BLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE
ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY BUT DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THAT SYSTEM, WITH
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOWING LOWISH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT; GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AT THIS POINT FOR RAIN LATE
SATURDAY BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARDS BENIGN TROUGHING AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 19/15Z THIS
MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE. LIGHT ELY WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS BECOMING MORE NELY AFTER 19/12Z AND INCREASING SPEEDS TO 5-10
KTS. MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP AROUND 19/15Z-17Z ALONG WITH THE
ONSET OF -RA. CIGS THEN CONTINUE TO FALL TO IFR AFTER 19/20Z WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALSO BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIP SHOULD END STARTING AT THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS AND CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 20/00Z. LINGERING RESTRICTIONS THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME PATCHY AND BRIEF LIFR
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE COAST
OF SC WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-022-029-115-116.
GA...NONE.
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