132
FXUS62 KCAE 192057
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
357 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND VERY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON STRONG GUSTY WINDS, A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH/CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A DRY, COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
PULLED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOWERING WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LIGHT RAIN SPREADS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CSRA AND MOST OF THE MIDLANDS
WILL RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH WE WILL SEE
THIS RAIN MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE THE
PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WHERE THE COLD AIR UNDERCUTS
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALLOWS FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPES IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
LIMITED EXTENT OF ANY WINTER WEATHER TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE FA WHERE WETBULB TEMPS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING.
ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.
FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE: TIMING FOR ANY POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER WILL RANGE FROM 21Z (4 PM ET) TO 03Z (10 PM ET).
AFTER WHICH ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE, OTHER THAN RAIN, SHOULD BE FREEZING RAIN
AS COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW MIX, PARTICULARLY AT
THE ONSET AND END OF PRECIP. ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT GLAZE, MAINLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES.
TONIGHT, COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD PROMOTE SHOWERS AT THE
END OF THE NEAR TERM BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE BEYOND
THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG 160KT WEST-EAST
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED TO GENERALLY 850MB ACROSS CENTRAL SC
AND A LITTLE DEEPER NEAR TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NC BORDER.
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE VORTICITY APPEARS
CHANNELED THOUGH. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE QUITE COLD -4C TO
-8C NORTH OF CAE IN THE MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SURFACE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING AND -10C AT
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD NEAR 800 MB. IT APPEARS ICE PRODUCTION
WILL BE LIMITED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE AND FORCING NOT OVERLY
STRONG WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH CHANNELED NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE, ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING IN
SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT/PEE DEE. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW, BUT ALSO SHOWS
LIMITED SNOW GROWTH. FREEZING DRIZZLE/GRAUPEL OR DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING MID MORNING MORE LIKELY INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA. THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS WINTRY PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE NC BORDER.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MAX GUSTS POSSIBLY
25-30 MPH. SO, WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR MASS BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE AREA BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IN GENERAL, A WEAK BROAD AREA OF
TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE FLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM
UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY, THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT MORE, WITH
MON/TUES/WED TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
IFR OR LIFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH -RA WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, CLEARING THE TAF SITES BY 00Z. EXPECT PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAINFALL. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL TO IFR THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE DEPARTURE OF RAINFALL.
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z ON THURSDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. AS CLOUD COVER CLEARS LATE THURSDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ALTHOUGH THIS IS
BEYOND THE CURRENT 24 HOUR PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MAY BRING EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-022-
029-031-038-115-116.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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