185
FXUS62 KCAE 200350
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR BLACK ICE DUE TO WET
ROADS AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, MAINLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THURSDAY MORNING FROM A PASSING
TROUGH. SKIES THEN CLEAR OUT AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS IN.
THIS AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE,
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF WET ROADS AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES HAS
PROMPTED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE MIDLANDS DUE TO
POSSIBLE BLACK ICE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DESPITE
THE CLOUDS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS SHOULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID-20S TO THE
LOWER 30S. IT'LL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE CSRA WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS
COULD CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS NEAR DAYBREAK. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG 160KT WEST-EAST
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED TO GENERALLY 850MB ACROSS CENTRAL SC
AND A LITTLE DEEPER NEAR TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NC BORDER.
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE VORTICITY APPEARS
CHANNELED THOUGH. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE QUITE COLD -4C TO
-8C NORTH OF CAE IN THE MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SURFACE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING AND -10C AT
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD NEAR 800 MB. IT APPEARS ICE PRODUCTION
WILL BE LIMITED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE AND FORCING NOT OVERLY
STRONG WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH CHANNELED NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE, ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING IN
SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT/PEE DEE. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW, BUT ALSO SHOWS
LIMITED SNOW GROWTH. FREEZING DRIZZLE/GRAUPEL OR DRIZZLE AFTER
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING MID MORNING MORE LIKELY INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA. THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS WINTRY PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE NC BORDER.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH MAX GUSTS POSSIBLY
25-30 MPH. SO, WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR MASS BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE AREA BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IN GENERAL, A WEAK BROAD AREA OF
TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE FLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM
UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY, THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT MORE, WITH
MON/TUES/WED TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL KEEP
WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW CIGS
AND POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AND NOT RESULT
IN RESTRICTIONS, GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
BECOME GUSTY (GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS) FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
CLOUDS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH DRIER
AND COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MAY BRING EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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