547
FXUS62 KCAE 201006 CCA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
506 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF BLACK ICE DUE TO WET
ROADS AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, MAINLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING FROM A PASSING TROUGH.
SKIES THEN CLEAR OUT AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS IN. THIS AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDY AND COLD WITH AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH MID 30S TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING WET ROADS FROM YESTERDAY'S PRECIP AND THESE SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES (WHICH MAY STILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WARMING
BACK UP) MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLACK ICE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED LAST EVENING FOR THESE
IMPACTS. THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOWS THIS MORNING, AND SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE
THREAT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS, DESPITE CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION ON
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850 MB
OR SO, WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ICE IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS SETUP COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING. CAM
SOLUTIONS, IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR DO SHOW SOME STRONGER RETURNS, BUT
THINKING THIS IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
DESPITE SOME OF THE OTHER BETTER INDICATORS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH ANY IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIP LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST, EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE MID 40S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COLD
ADVECTION, THIS MAY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. SKIES WILL THEN
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE TONIGHT, AND
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND CHILLS IN THE 10-15
DEGREE RANGE, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRAVERSES THE REGION
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORYLINE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS EASTWARD. THIS
SHOULD FORCE THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, HOLDING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES OVERALL IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE, BUT OVERALL THE TEMPS THROUGH BOTH DAYS LOOK WELL
BELOW NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW 20S. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S ON
SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
30S. ONLY WEATHER WE MAY HAVE EITHER DAY IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PWS WILL HELP
KEEP US DRY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM, WITH QUIET
WEATHER AND GENERAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SATURDAY SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY, WITH GUIDANCE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GENERAL TROUGHING
TAKES US INTO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND PERSISTENTLY MERIDIONAL, WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE FLOW EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO. A SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY SHOULD
DRIVE A DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA; WHILE SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THIS, PWS LOOK WELL BELOW NORMAL AHEAD
OF IT AND THERE IS SKEPTICISM A FRONT LIKE THIS COULD OVERCOME IT
WITH BULK OF THE FORCING LIKELY TO OUR NORTH. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS LIKELY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND
DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
LOOKS MORE ABUNDANT AS FLOW LIKELY SHIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
IT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT RAINFALL. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO WARM UP AHEAD OF THIS, GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
RETURN TO VFR OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS
EVENING.
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL KEEP WEDGE LIKE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AFTER SUNRISE, AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, BUT IT LIKELY REMAINS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE BEHIND A PASSING FRONT TO AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE
AGS/DNL TERMINALS FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR RETURNING TO
ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. SKC THEN PERSISTS
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND GENERALLY
NEGATES ANY THREAT FOR FOG. WINDS REMAIN NWLY OVERNIGHT AND
DON'T COMPLETELY DECOUPLE, SO LOOK FOR SPEEDS AROUND 5-8 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MAY BRING EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-116-
135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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