672
FXUS62 KCAE 201739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES AND DRIZZLE WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS BITTERLY
COLD AIR FILTERS IN. THIS AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS PICK UP
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE SHOWS ALL-LIQUID CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER CLOUDS WITH ICE WHICH PRODUCED
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED EAST. THIS
POINTS TO LINGERING AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE DRIZZLE PULLS AWAY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACED IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
AS SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AS COLD,
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL
HOURS OF WIND CHILLS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY COLD END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY
A LATE WINTER 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH BELOW NORMAL H5
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY
DRY, THEREFORE THERE ARE NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
- POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE FEBRUARY BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MUCH BELOW H5 HEIGHTS
RETURNING TO THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SKIES AND DRIZZLE CLEARING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
DRIZZLE REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB WILL COME TO
AND END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 22Z AS NW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS THEY
SHIFT TO NORTHERLIES. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-116-
135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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