776
FXUS62 KCAE 202349
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 10PM THIS EVENING DUE TO THE FORECAST APPARENT
TEMPERATURE (WIND CHILL) VALUES AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES. IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT APPROPRIATE ACTIONS, SUCH AS DRIPPING FACETS AND
BRINGING IN PETS, ARE TAKEN TONIGHT. LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY COLD END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY
A LATE WINTER 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH BELOW NORMAL H5
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY
DRY, THEREFORE THERE ARE NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
- POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE FEBRUARY BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MUCH BELOW H5 HEIGHTS
RETURNING TO THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z OR SO BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-116-
135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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