058
FXUS62 KCAE 210506
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1206 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES ARE CLEAR AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT. THIS
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT AS
STRONG CAA CONTINUES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 10PM
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE FORECAST APPARENT TEMPERATURE (WIND
CHILL) VALUES AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT
APPROPRIATE ACTIONS, SUCH AS DRIPPING FACETS AND BRINGING IN
PETS, ARE TAKEN TONIGHT. LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY COLD END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY
A LATE WINTER 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH BELOW NORMAL H5
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY
DRY, THEREFORE THERE ARE NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
- POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE FEBRUARY BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MUCH BELOW H5 HEIGHTS
RETURNING TO THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.
SKC. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KTS, AND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME
SCT HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL NEGATE ANY FOG
CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page