425
FXUS62 KCAE 210903
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES ARE CLEAR AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT HAS DROPPED
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH, AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WE HAVEN'T QUITE HIT OUR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST YET (MAINLY FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURE/WIND
CHILL), BUT GIVEN THE MORE RECENT WARM WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS, WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED IN, EVIDENT IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS, AND SATELLITE ESTIMATE PWAT VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.10"-0.15". THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY WITH
COLD NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WHICH IS
STILL ABOUT 12 TO 16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
FILTER IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HINDERING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EVER SO SLIGHTLY. STILL, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES INTO CENTRAL NC, AND LOWS WILL
TUMBLE AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEAUTIFUL, QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT US QUITE COLD SHOULD TREK ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A PASSING HIGH CLOUD
OR TWO AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH, BUT OTHERWISE
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID ABOUT
SUNDAY. AFTER STARTING THE DAY IN THE UPPER 20S OR LOW 30S, LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO MODERATE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY THE
AFTERNOON! WE MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THAT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
REGARDLESS, WE LOOK DRY AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER
SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL, WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURE MODERATION CONTINUING
- NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND MERIDIONAL IN THE
LONG TERM, WE AREN'T LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, AND
PRECIPITATION SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH. SO GENERALLY EXPECT OUR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE, WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK INTO THE MID 60S -
NEAR NORMAL. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT IS PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD AS WE'LL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO INCREASE AND SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONT, PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FROM
THERE, THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO FOLLOW RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. RAIN DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY WITH THIS ONE, AND THE
CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY) SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US A BIT
COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LONG TERM PERIOD OVERALL, LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.
SKC. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KTS, AND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME
SCT HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL NEGATE ANY FOG
CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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