915
FXUS62 KCAE 212345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, HINDERING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SOME.
STILL, CALM WINDS AND CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LATE WINTER 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY BY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY DRY, THEREFORE THERE
ARE NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK
- POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
LATE FEBRUARY BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MUCH BELOW H5 HEIGHTS RETURNING
TO THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
WINDS BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS WINDS TURN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THERE MAY BE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED A FEW CUMULUS AROUND
5KFT AT OGB FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. REMAINING SITES
SHOULD KEEP MAINLY THE THIN SCATTERED CIRRUS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL NEGATE ANY FOG
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page