030
FXUS62 KCAE 220519
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, HINDERING NET RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SOME.
STILL, CALM WINDS AND CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LATE WINTER 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY BY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY DRY, THEREFORE THERE
ARE NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK
- POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
LATE FEBRUARY BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MUCH BELOW H5 HEIGHTS RETURNING
TO THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. AS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MIXING. WINDS LIGHT OR NEAR CALM
BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING BEHIND TROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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