349
FXUS62 KCAE 220608
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
A MODIFIED DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT THE MOMENT STREAMING
WEST-EAST ACROSS GA/SC IS IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE IS A RATHER ROBUST SHORT
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AMPLIFY A
BIT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA THIS EVENING. THE AIR
MASS IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 0.30
INCHES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO INCREASE MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION NOTED.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE TROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AND WITH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER, NEAR FREEZING AS THE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LATE WINTER 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY BY MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY DRY, THEREFORE THERE
ARE NO PRECIPITATION CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK
- POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
LATE FEBRUARY BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MUCH BELOW H5 HEIGHTS RETURNING
TO THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. AS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM THIS MORNING THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MIXING. WINDS LIGHT OR NEAR CALM
BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING BEHIND TROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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