281
FXUS62 KCAE 221115
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
A MODIFIED DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT THE MOMENT STREAMING
WEST-EAST ACROSS GA/SC IS IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE IS A RATHER ROBUST SHORT
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AMPLIFY A
BIT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA THIS EVENING. THE AIR
MASS IS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 0.30
INCHES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO INCREASE MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION NOTED.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE TROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AND WITH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER, NEAR FREEZING AS THE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THE AIRMASS MODERATE OVERALL. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN - IN THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE FORCING, THOUGH, SO IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT
OTHERWISE, BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK QUIET AND PRECIPITATION
FREE DESPITE THE PASSING OF THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK
- MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH RAINFALL POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ITS TROUGHY, MERIDIONAL
TENDENCY FOR THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY, DRIVING A DRY FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS A
RESULT, WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW HELPING HIGHS BUMP UP INTO
THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN. ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT BACK AND FORTH WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAS TRENDING UNIFORMLY TOWARDS A BIT MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM OVERALL, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER
RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS,
THE DAY LOOKS QUITE WARM, WITH NBM AND MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING
TEMPS TOWARDS THE LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS FAVORED BEHIND
THURSDAY'S FRONT AS A DEEP TROUGH AGAIN ENVELOPES THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BACK TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THRU EARLY EVENING, THEN BECOMING
CLEAR AROUND 03Z. LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CALM THIS MORNING THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH
DEEP MIXING. WINDS LIGHT OR NEAR CALM BY 00Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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