051
FXUS62 KCAE 272345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE FRIDAY,
BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RISE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SEASONABLY COOL.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
A SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF TEXAS, SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND A DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE MAIN INHIBITOR FOR COOLING LATER IN THE
NIGHT WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. LOWS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY RISES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS BERMUDA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE HAVE SOME
MORE CLOUDS AROUND. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN SO RH VALUES
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIMITING NOCTURNAL
COOLING WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT, COMBINED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT, TO
PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AID IN ERODING THE DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE FURTHER LOWERING THE THREAT OF INCREASED FIRE
DANGER. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA, BUT AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER DURING THE EXTENDED WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SHOWS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FIRST COMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ON
SUNDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH
ONLY A LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY RAIN
MOVES OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND IF WE CAN GET ANY CLEARING.
THE SECOND, AND MOST LIKELY BEST, OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
COMES ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, THE
MAIN POTENTIAL DETERRENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. THE SPC DAY 5 SWO MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT (15%) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PLACE.
THE PROBABILITY OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG RISES INTO THE
LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY, 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE, AGAIN
FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY
SAY WHAT, IF ANY, SEVERE HAZARDS ARE MOST LIKELY, THE SITUATION
BARES WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES. DESI SHOWS DAILY POP CHANCES
AROUND 20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
POSSIBLY WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEAR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK, INCREASING TO
THE 7-10 KT RANGE. A FEW GUSTS OVER 10 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE FOR RIVER FOG AT
AGS NEAR DAYBREAK, BUT THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF PATCHY RIVER FOG INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO
MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
RH VALUES FALL BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT, BUT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. TONIGHT,
BETTER RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THAN WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT BUT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO START INCREASING SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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