809
FXUS62 KCAE 280622
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY,
BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RISE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
TODAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
40S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
RESULTING IN A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOME WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE DEAMPLIFYING
AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
OUR AREA AS A RESULT. THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT, COMBINED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT, TO
PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AID IN ERODING THE DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE FURTHER LOWERING THE THREAT OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA, BUT AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER DURING THE EXTENDED WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SHOWS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FIRST COMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ON
SUNDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE WITH
ONLY A LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY RAIN
MOVES OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND IF WE CAN GET ANY CLEARING.
THE SECOND, AND MOST LIKELY BEST, OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
COMES ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING UP TO THE EVENT, THE
MAIN POTENTIAL DETERRENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. THE SPC DAY 5 SWO MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT (15%) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR AT LEAST MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PLACE.
THE PROBABILITY OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG RISES INTO THE
LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY, 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE, AGAIN
FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY
SAY WHAT, IF ANY, SEVERE HAZARDS ARE MOST LIKELY, THE SITUATION
BARES WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES. DESI SHOWS DAILY POP CHANCES
AROUND 20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
POSSIBLY WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEAR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS
THROUGH SUNRISE BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER SUNRISE THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BRING CONTINUED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT RIVER FOG AT PRONE
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF PATCHY RIVER FOG INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO
MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
RH VALUES FALL BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT, BUT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. TONIGHT,
BETTER RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THAN WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT BUT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO START INCREASING SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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