786
FXUS62 KCAE 281158
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY,
BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
RISE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
TODAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
40S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
RESULTING IN A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SOME WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE DEAMPLIFYING
AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
OUR AREA AS A RESULT. THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING ON SATURDAY, LESSENING FIRE DANGER
OVERALL
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON
A BROAD AND WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AMIDST A MOISTENING
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. THIS IS A RESULT OF SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING SHIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY DEEP ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FAVORS SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IT DOES LOOK
FAIRLY WARM, THOUGH, AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY, BUT CLOUDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION.
DESPITE THIS, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW PRECIP
TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME DESTABILIZATION,
THOUGH THE EXTENT OF THAT ISN'T TOO CLEAR AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY, IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ARE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER &
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. TO BE HONEST, WAS SLIGHTLY SURPRISED AT
HOW WARM GUIDANCE IS ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD START THE DAY FAIRLY
WARM BUT IF THERE IS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY AND THEN EARLY
DEVELOPING PRECIP, IT'LL BE HARD TO GET WARMER THAN THE UPPER
70S. STICKING NEAR GUIDANCE AS THE WAS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS FORCING
WEAKENS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT
- SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFT EASTWARD.
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FAVORING
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN US
POISED TO BE ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DESTABILIZATION, WITH
THE EXTENT OF THAT IN QUESTION. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE IS LIKELY TO ADVECT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR OF
35-45 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE, FAVORING
LINEAR CONVECTION OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT TO UNPACK
BETWEEN NOW AND THE EVENT BUT THIS CERTAINLY IS THE FIRST EVENT
THIS YEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN SO I WOULDN'T PAY
TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE THAT RIGHT NOW AS IT'LL BE DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION TIMING. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S OR
LOW 80S AS THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL FAVOR WARM TEMPS & IT
APPEARS THAT WE'LL HAVE A FAIRLY RAIN FREE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION ITSELF. SPC IS MAINTAINING THEIR DAY 4 SLIGHT
RISK AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS THREAT, WHICH IS COMPLETELY
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FRAME.
THE PATTERN BEYOND MONDAY/TUESDAY IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN, ESPECIALLY WITH SPECIFICS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME, WITH A NICE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IN ITS WAKE. THE PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN BY THE
WAVE BREAK DOWN OF A DEEP, CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY DIFFERENT WITH THIS, EVEN AT OUR
RELATIVELY SHORT RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WELL REFLECTED IN
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS AS THE TWO HAVE VERY DIFFERENT
PATTERNS AND PROGRESSIONS OF SAID PATTERNS AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS TAKES ON A MUCH MORE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FOLLOWING THE
EJECTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE EC/ECE BREAKS OFF A STRONGER CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, RESULTING IN STRONG RIDGING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RESULTING IN A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CONUS. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS TEND TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
LOCALLY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. BUT BEYOND THAT, SENSIBLE WEATHER IS GOING TO BE
DRIVEN BY THE WAY THE PATTERN ENDS UP PLAYING OUT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO. SO EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE WED/THUR BUT EVEN THAT IS
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS
THROUGH SUNRISE BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER SUNRISE THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BRING CONTINUED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT RIVER FOG AT PRONE
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF PATCHY RIVER FOG INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO
MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH VERY DRY
FUELS BUT MOISTURE INCREASES SOME THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO RH
VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT. 5-10 MPH WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH WHERE NO MAJOR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME TO 15-20
MPH MAYBE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES, THUS
BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THIS DRY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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