582
FXUS62 KCAE 281948
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RISE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMER WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DECK NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAIN IS SEEN. SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS AFTERNOON IS
BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH VALUES (NEAR 25-30 PERCENT) WITH
DRY FUELS AND THUS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BEFORE GOOD RH RECOVERY HAPPENS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE FA BEFORE WE THEN COOL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES
WITH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST.
OVERNIGHT WE KEEP 15-20 KTS OF FLOW AROUND 850 MB AND THUS I
EXPECT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
GO CALM INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING ON SATURDAY, LESSENING FIRE DANGER
OVERALL
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL LIMIT THE
FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUT INCREASED CLOUDS LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS SO WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE AN INCH. THE TREND AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IS A DEAMPLIFYING
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OF THE
WESTERN US BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE LIMITED AND TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TOTAL QPF AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS AGAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
- SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. THE
TIMING OF THE FORCING IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH UPPER LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PROBABILITY OF 40
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR TRENDING UP IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS
THE QUESTION OF FORCING AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND THE FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
IT, CONVERGENCE MAY DECREASE AND THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN MAY
WEAKEN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG ITS COLD
POOL WHICH WOULD FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION WHICH WOULD BE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHERE THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY POTENTIAL REMAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CSRA
FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL A BIT MORE, ALTHOUGH SPC DOES KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW. SHEAR IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DOES APPEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK OWING TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE 500MB PATTERN AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL,
THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE MOIST AND EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL
AT LEAST LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLEVIATE
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AS WE SEE SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS DECK OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC, MOVING INLAND. I
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4,000 FT AT
OGB IN THE TAF BUT MODELS AND FORECASTED SOUNDINGS ARE LESS
CONFIDENT IN THIS DECK REACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES BEFORE
LOSING HEATING AND THE DECK BEGINS TO DISSIPATE SO HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST CONTINUE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE KEEP 15-20 KTS OF
FLOW AROUND 850 MB. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BECOME CALM AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 9-12Z BUT
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY UNDER MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING AROUND 20 PERCENT AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS BEFORE SOME MID AND LOW CLOUDS BUILD IN CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS MORE RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH VERY DRY
FUELS BUT MOISTURE INCREASES SOME THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO RH
VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT. 5-10 MPH WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH WHERE NO MAJOR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME TO 15-20
MPH MAYBE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES, THUS
BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THIS DRY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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