657
FXUS62 KCAE 290048
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
848 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RISING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TX IS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GULF COAST. SCATTERED CUMULUS LIFTING TO THE NORTH IN
SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOON. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO GA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST, SO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AROUND LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS SHOW 30KT JET OVERNIGHT AROUND 1500
FT, SO SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A
BIT. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING ON SATURDAY, LESSENING FIRE DANGER
OVERALL
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL LIMIT THE
FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUT INCREASED CLOUDS LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS SO WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE AN INCH. THE TREND AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IS A DEAMPLIFYING
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OF THE
WESTERN US BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE LIMITED AND TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TOTAL QPF AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS AGAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
- SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. THE
TIMING OF THE FORCING IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH UPPER LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PROBABILITY OF 40
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR TRENDING UP IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS
THE QUESTION OF FORCING AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND THE FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
IT, CONVERGENCE MAY DECREASE AND THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN MAY
WEAKEN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG ITS COLD
POOL WHICH WOULD FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION WHICH WOULD BE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHERE THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY POTENTIAL REMAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CSRA
FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL A BIT MORE, ALTHOUGH SPC DOES KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW. SHEAR IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DOES APPEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK OWING TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE 500MB PATTERN AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL,
THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE MOIST AND EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL
AT LEAST LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLEVIATE
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW LOW, BUT VFR CLOUDS ARE BEING NOTED ON SATELLITE AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DON'T THINK THEY'LL LAST TOO LONG,
SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN AFTER ABOUT 12 OR 13Z. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION, ALSO EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER
ABOUT 15Z. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 15Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT AT
TIMES. THE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF,
BUT AGS COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK (8Z-12Z).
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS MORE RAIN
CHANCES MOVE IN.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. TOMORROW, 5-10 MPH WINDS LOOK
TO BE FROM THE SOUTH WHERE NO MAJOR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME
TO 15-20 MPH MAYBE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES,
THUS BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THIS DRY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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