377
FXUS62 KCAE 290633
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RISING
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY AND CONTINUED WARM
- LESSENED FIRE DANGER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES
AN UPPER LEVEL TOUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA AND DE-AMPLIFY BEFORE CROSSING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS BLANKETING THE DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WILL YIELD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AS PWATS CURRENTLY
AROUND 0.8 INCHES SHOULD RISE OVER AN INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PEAK OVERNIGHT AROUND 1.5 INCHES (NEARLY 200% OF NORMAL).
THEREFORE, EXPECTING CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARM ADVECTION WILL OFFSET THE DIMINISHED
SOLAR INSOLATION FROM CLOUD COVER AND STILL EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS AND UPPER CSRA AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE AN INCH. THE TREND AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IS A DEAMPLIFYING
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OF THE
WESTERN US BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE LIMITED AND TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TOTAL QPF AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS AGAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
- SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. THE
TIMING OF THE FORCING IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH UPPER LIFT
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PROBABILITY OF 40
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR TRENDING UP IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS
THE QUESTION OF FORCING AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND THE FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
IT, CONVERGENCE MAY DECREASE AND THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN MAY
WEAKEN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG ITS COLD
POOL WHICH WOULD FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION WHICH WOULD BE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHERE THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY POTENTIAL REMAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CSRA
FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL A BIT MORE, ALTHOUGH SPC DOES KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW. SHEAR IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DOES APPEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK OWING TO LARGE SPREAD IN
THE 500MB PATTERN AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL,
THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE MOIST AND EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL
AT LEAST LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLEVIATE
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA CURRENTLY SHOULD PERSIST AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS. INCREASED MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT BUT LIKELY AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS MORE RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANY A PASSING COLD
FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. TOMORROW, 5-10 MPH WINDS LOOK
TO BE FROM THE SOUTH WHERE NO MAJOR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME
TO 15-20 MPH MAYBE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES,
THUS BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THIS DRY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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