169
FXUS62 KCAE 292329
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LESSENED FIRE DANGER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES.
- RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN LATE AND INTO SUNDAY.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH-
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AROUND THE PRESSURE RIDGE
OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW 25KT JET AROUND 925 MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT THE MOMENT IS BELOW 1 INCH BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1.4 INCHES BY MORNING IN THE CSRA WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AT THE MOMENT AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES SEEN UPSTREAM IN
WATER VAPOR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS
FIELDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND MAINLY FOCUSED IN GA. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS, TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WITH WARM ADVECTION. LOWS AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM THE HREF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON (ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS). AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER CAPE
VALUES WILL BE WEAK WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF NEAR OR LESS
THAN 750 J/KG ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR
WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PWAT VALUES FROM THE NAEFS AROUND THE 97.5
PERCENTILE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATASET. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY FAST THOUGH KEEPING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ISOLATED TO MAINLY URBAN AREAS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BE
IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH,
ALONG WITH LOSS OF HEATING, SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF MONDAY'S
COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH MILD LOWS OVERNIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WELL WEST OF THE FA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION AND
DAYTIME HEATING LEAD TO A MODERATELY DESTABILIZED AIR MASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND SPC SREF
MODELS/MEMBERS HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE ABOVE
1500 J/KG. AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WARM THETA-E AIR WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION STRENGTHEN. A
40 TO 50 KT 850 MB JET WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CELL
STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THIS
COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALL POINT TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BIGGEST THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
A TORNADO. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S. THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD
QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP MID WEEK RESULTING IN AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN A
PERIOD OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE THUR-SAT PERIOD OF THIS LONG
TERM FORECAST. ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH THE RIDGE FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE MID-WEEK
BEFORE THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES, SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, AND WEAK RIDGING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...CLOSER TO 12Z WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR AND MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS AT AGS
AND DNL.
SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE. SATELLITE SHOWING MID LEVEL CEILINGS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AFTER 09Z, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MODELS SUGGEST
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE AT AGS AND DNL BY 12Z SUNDAY. IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE. KEPT OTHER TERMINALS VFR
AS MOISTURE FLUX APPEARS STRONGEST IN GA AROUND RIDGE. BROKEN
VFR STRATO-CUMULUS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 35-40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS
TOWARD 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES,
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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