540
FXUS62 KCAE 301022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME
STRONG-SEVERE, EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD
HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LESSENED FIRE DANGER WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES.
- CONTINUED WARM WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- MILD OVERNIGHT
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOWERING BASES. PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH FORECAST CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
SOMEWHAT WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS WHICH ARE IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL DATASET AND STORM MOTION
BEING FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND SENSITIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCE
OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVERHEAD
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
- STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE CSRA.
- DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
BETWEEN 2-7PM.
A BROAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH
CONSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL SEE MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, WITH
PWAT'S CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25" AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID
60'S. THERE ISN'T A PARTICULARLY DEEP MOISTURE RESERVOIR TO THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT NAEFS IVT IS STILL AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE IN THE
STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL ADVECTION. SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, THANKS TO THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HREF AND GEFS GENERALLY PRODUCES BETWEEN 500-1500 ML CAPE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HIGHEST IN THE CSRA. SINCE THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH, DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AROUND 30-35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, 0-1 KM SHEAR BULK MAGNITUDE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE MODE, A GENERALLY LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS AL-MS, THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO GA AND SC BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST, SO THE STRONGEST ELEMENTS OF
THIS MCS SHOULD STAY FOCUSED ACROSS GA. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE CSRA AND A LESS BALANCED MCS
IS LIKELY ACROSS SC. COMBINING THE CONVECTIVE MODE AND PARAMETER
SPACE, THE WIND THREAT IS HIGHEST IN THE CSRA WITH A COLD-POOL
DOMINANT MCS AND HIGHER INSTABILITY, WHILE AND TORNADO THREAT IS
LIKELY A BIT HIGHER IN SC IN THE SHEAR DOMINATE MCS SEGMENT.
REGARDLESS, AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND, AND SECONDARY ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. TIMING GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-7PM FROM WEST TO
EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
- STEADILY WARMING TEMPS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH-LOWS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, STEADILY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW ISENTROPICALLY AND UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS AROUND BEFORE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARRIVE FOR
THURSDAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EC EFI IS
LIGHTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH EFI'S OVER 0.9 ALREADY AND SOT OVER
1.0. SO CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TEMP SETUP
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH MULTIPLE DAILY HIGH-LOW TEMP RECORDS IN
PLAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION BUT LOWER CIGS STARTING TO
SHOW UP WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A SURGE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW
VFR CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME AT TERMINALS WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 03Z HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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