481
FXUS62 KCAE 301658
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1258 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS LEADS
TO A MILD OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CSRA, BUT SO FAR
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
COLUMBIA AREA WITH MUCH OF BURKE COUNTY ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG. THIS CAPE, COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MISSING INGREDIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS WIND SHEAR. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT OR UNDER 40 KNOTS TODAY, THOUGH IT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS EVENING. IN OTHER WORDS, WE HAVE A
NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD. A LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING BUT GIVEN
THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, THIS THREAT WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH RAIN ALREADY MOVING INTO THE CSRA, LOWERED
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-70S THERE WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH WAA, WILL LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
- DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE A TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL.
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN US ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A LINE
OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO THE CSRA OF GA AND CENTRAL SC IN
THE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING A TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL.
DETAILS: THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE FA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE
WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS IN GA/SC DESPITE OVERCAST
OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 750 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATER THAN 50% OF SREF MEMBERS SHOW
MLCAPE HIGHER THAN 1000 J/KG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
VALUES IF CLOUDS CLEAR QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. AS THE LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THIS HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS IN THE
AFTERNOON WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED CELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN IN THE LINEAR SYSTEM. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE SHEAR POINTS TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY
VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT AND INSTEAD FAVOR A COLD-POOL DOMINATED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS PRODUCE
A TORNADO ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INCLUDING EASTERN GA AND INTO
THE MIDLANDS. THE LARGEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT SOMEWHAT EXTENDING INTO THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY AND THE LOWER LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE STRONGER. THE HREF ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOWING MOST OF THE UPDRAFT
HELICITY TRACKS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. IF THE HIGHER END OF
INSTABILITY PROJECTIONS ARE REALIZED THEN SOME STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 200%
OF NORMAL, THE STORM MOTION SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
TIMING: GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF
CONVECTION WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST IS BETWEEN 1 AND 4PM, CONTINUING
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PUSHING EAST IN
THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
- STEADILY WARMING TEMPS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH-LOWS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, STEADILY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW ISENTROPICALLY AND UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS AROUND BEFORE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARRIVE FOR
THURSDAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EC EFI IS
LIGHTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH EFI'S OVER 0.9 ALREADY AND SOT OVER
1.0. SO CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TEMP SETUP
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH MULTIPLE DAILY HIGH-LOW TEMP RECORDS IN
PLAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LOW CEILINGS LIKELY TONIGHT....
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING AGS/DNL. ADDED A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT THESE TERMINALS AS A PRECAUTION BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT THE THREAT OF
RESTRICTIONS INCREASES AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN. LIFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT CAE/CUB/OGB BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR AGS/DNL. CEILINGS
COULD REMAIN LOW UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD BUT
THEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN JUST BEYOND
18Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A STATEWIDE
BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ON MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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