537
FXUS62 KCAE 312344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.
- COOLER AIR PUSHES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS FINALLY EXITED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL
LAGGING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ADVANCING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
MAY SEE THAT THIN LINE HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. DRYER AIR MOVES
IN VERY LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MORNING. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER, AT LEAST
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BETTER COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 50S RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S
EAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK AND LIKELY THE DRIEST AS
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.5" BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40'S OR PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. BROAD OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INCREASING ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES. A FEW UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT ACCUMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1" AND 1.25".
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND 60S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,
THOUGH THE SPREAD BY SUNDAY IS A LITTLE LARGER AND TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES. THE EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE
80TH-90TH+ PERCENTILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW SHIFT OF
TAILS BULLSEYES OF 1 THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND VALUES DROP OFF A
BIT TO GENERALLY 80TH PERCENTILE FOR SUNDAY, SO THERE IS GOOD MODEL
SUPPORT FOR THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. THE UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS LIKELY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES
FOR THE NEXT FRONT LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALSO PROBABLY BRING
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH
06Z. THEN, SOME LOWER CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TO REDUCE TO MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR IFR VIS AT AGS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AFTER
ABOUT 11Z, AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR AFTER THAT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT, AND TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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