523
FXUS62 KCAE 010655
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING DEW POINTS AND
NOTABLY LOWER OVERALL MOISTURE WITH HREF MEAN PWATS BETWEEN 0.6
AND 0.7 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY, SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT STRONGER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 70S IN THE NORTHERN AREA, INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS,
LEADING TO MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND BEGINS.
BROAD OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INCREASING ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES. A FEW UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT ACCUMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1" AND 1.25".
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,
THOUGH THE SPREAD BY SUNDAY IS A LITTLE LARGER AND TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES. THE EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE
80TH-90TH+ PERCENTILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW SHIFT OF
TAILS BULLSEYES OF 1 THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND VALUES DROP OFF A
BIT TO GENERALLY 80TH PERCENTILE FOR SUNDAY, SO THERE IS GOOD MODEL
SUPPORT FOR THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. THE UNCERTAINTY OF
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS LIKELY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES
FOR THE NEXT FRONT LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALSO PROBABLY BRING
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS HAS LED TO A MIX
OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN BY THIS EVENING OUT OF
THE EAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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