544
FXUS62 KCAE 010814
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR WILL FILL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME WEEK SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS
EXPECTING THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO NEAR-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND RAIN IS EXPECTED SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING DEW POINTS AND
NOTABLY LOWER OVERALL MOISTURE WITH HREF MEAN PWATS BETWEEN 0.6
AND 0.7 INCHES. AS A RESULT, WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY, SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT STRONGER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 70S IN THE NORTHERN AREA, INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS,
LEADING TO MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND THE WARMUP BEGINS, DESPITE A WEAK
WEDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPSTATE
BROAD OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL STEADILY INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT'S WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1.25" ACROSS THE
AREA AND AS A RESULT, SOME ISENTROPIC-UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SOME WEAK CAD DEVELOPMENT IN
THE UPSTATE, WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THIS. HOWEVER,
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AGAIN STAYS IN THE UPSTATE; SO
WE SHOULD NOT DEVELOP THE REINFORCING WEDGE INVERSION. THAT
BEING SAID, IF A STRONG WEDGE DOES DEVELOP, THE BOUNDARY MAY
CLIP THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NEAR RECORD HIGH MAX-MIN TEMPS EXPECTED.
AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, THE
RESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RECORDS, LOCKING AN EXTREMELY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE.
NAEFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AT/EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL
RECORDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A TRULY IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL.
EC EFI IS MUCH THE SAME, WITH AN EFI OF 0.9 OR HIGHER FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SOT OF 1 OR HIGHER FOR THE
SAME PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE NBM FORECAST TEMPS FOR BOTH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPS ARE AT/EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY; GENERALLY HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 90'S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60'S. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN
PLAY, BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT AND EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS NATURE OF
THIS RIDGE, MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY AS WELL (DESPITE
OCCURRING IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL EARLY PART OF THE
MONTH).
TIMING FOR WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IS STILL BEING WORKED OUT
IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
DESPITE THE ROBUST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, GUIDANCE IS
NOT DEPICTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS HAS LED TO A MIX
OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN BY THIS EVENING OUT OF
THE EAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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