485
FXUS62 KCAE 011503
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1103 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY BUT THERE MAY STILL
BE A FEW WEEK SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS
THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTING THROUGH SUNDAY. A
RETURN TO NEAR- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND RAIN IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT DECREASING DEW POINTS AND A WIND SHIFT FROM W TO N AS A
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID DAY CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HREF MEAN
PWATS BETWEEN 0.6 AND 0.7 INCHES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT STRONGER, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S
IN THE NORTHERN AREA, INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREA.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT, INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS, LEADING TO MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND THE WARMUP BEGINS, DESPITE A WEAK
WEDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPSTATE
BROAD OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL STEADILY INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT'S WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1.25" ACROSS THE
AREA AND AS A RESULT, SOME ISENTROPIC-UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SOME WEAK CAD DEVELOPMENT IN
THE UPSTATE, WITH GUIDANCE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THIS. HOWEVER,
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AGAIN STAYS IN THE UPSTATE; SO
WE SHOULD NOT DEVELOP THE REINFORCING WEDGE INVERSION. THAT
BEING SAID, IF A STRONG WEDGE DOES DEVELOP, THE BOUNDARY MAY
CLIP THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NEAR RECORD HIGH MAX-MIN TEMPS EXPECTED.
AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, THE
RESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RECORDS, LOCKING AN EXTREMELY STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE.
NAEFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AT/EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL
RECORDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A TRULY IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL.
EC EFI IS MUCH THE SAME, WITH AN EFI OF 0.9 OR HIGHER FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SOT OF 1 OR HIGHER FOR THE
SAME PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE NBM FORECAST TEMPS FOR BOTH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPS ARE AT/EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY; GENERALLY HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 90'S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60'S. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN
PLAY, BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT AND EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS NATURE OF
THIS RIDGE, MONTHLY RECORDS COULD BE IN PLAY AS WELL (DESPITE
OCCURRING IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL EARLY PART OF THE
MONTH).
TIMING FOR WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IS STILL BEING WORKED OUT
IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
DESPITE THE ROBUST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, GUIDANCE IS
NOT DEPICTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A WIND SHIFT FROM W TO N OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z, THE FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA,
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND N WINDS AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY, AROUND 5 KNOTS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E/SE OVERNIGHT
REMAINING LIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SHALLOW MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS IS A TYPICAL
SETUP FOR FOG OR STRATUS AT OUR TAF SITES. WITH LOWER LEVEL
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS, THIS WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR STRATUS
OVER FOG. EXPECT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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