389
FXUS62 KCAE 011906
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
306 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY BUT THERE MAY STILL
BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS THURSDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HREF MEAN PWATS
BETWEEN 0.6 AND 0.7 INCHES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT STRONGER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
NORTHERN AREA, INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY FOG OR STRATUS BUILDING DOWN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
STRATUS APPEARS MORE LIKELY DUE TO A 15 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
- THURSDAY IS WARMER AND DRIER AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE UPPER FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
US.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WEAK COLD AIR
DAMMING DEVELOPS, LIKELY PRODUCING A LARGE RANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD VARY GREATLY AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AMOUNT OF CAD WITH FORECAST
VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID-70S IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. ANY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS BUT
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASING IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN. THE CLEARING COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN FA BUT MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THURSDAY
NIGHT BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS BUILD BACK
IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ATYPICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER RIDGING HOLDS STRONG TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEING REPLACED BY A POTENT TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE HOT AND DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THOUGH, WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT ON
MONDAY, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NW OR N WINDS
AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY, AROUND 5
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT REMAINING LIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SHALLOW MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR ALOFT.
THIS IS A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG OR STRATUS AT OUR TAF SITES.
WITH LOWER LEVEL WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS, THIS WOULD TYPICALLY
FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. EXPECT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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