580
FXUS62 KCAE 012342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT, SETTING
UP AN ONSHORE FLOW WIND PATTERN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FOG OR STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. STRATUS APPEARS MORE LIKELY DUE TO
A 15 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
- THURSDAY IS WARMER AND DRIER AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE UPPER FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
US.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WEAK COLD AIR
DAMMING DEVELOPS, LIKELY PRODUCING A LARGE RANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD VARY GREATLY AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AMOUNT OF CAD WITH FORECAST
VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID-70S IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. ANY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS BUT
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASING IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS
DOWN. THE CLEARING COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN FA BUT MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THURSDAY
NIGHT BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CLOUDS BUILD BACK
IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ATYPICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER RIDGING HOLDS STRONG TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEING REPLACED BY A POTENT TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE HOT AND DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THOUGH, WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT ON
MONDAY, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALL'S QUIET ON THE TAF FRONT AS OF RIGHT NOW. THE FRONT HAS
FINALLY SHIFTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES AND IS SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA RIGHT NOW,
SOUTH OF THE ORANGEBURG AND AUGUSTA TERMINALS. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH VALUES IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW CLOUDS TO
GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER, THEREAFTER, RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30 KNOTS,
AND WIDESPREAD CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
THE TIMEFRAME OF MVFR ONSET LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z,
WITH IFR DEVELOPING QUICKLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME CLEARING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THERE REALLY ISN'T A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE TO HOLD THE
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. SO EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD DON'T REALLY LOOK TO BE A PROBLEM, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT IN
THE TAFS RIGHT NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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