170
FXUS62 KCAE 021201
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AREA.
FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS BELOW 10KFT WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HREF MEAN INDICATES THAT PWATS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE CSRA. WINDS ALSO INCREASING
TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AS
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER, IN THE MID-60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BROAD SURFACE AND RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THE STEADY
WARMUP BEGINS.
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BUILD AS THE BROAD 500MB FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
AMPLIFIES AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS DIG INTO THE SE CONUS. AS A
RESULT, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO MID-80'S, DESPITE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME, BUT ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE UPSTATE. DURING PEAK HEATING, SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BUT OVERALL THE
HREF SUITE HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED DRIER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY DEEP
MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN EXTREMELY STRONG OFFSHORE
SURFACE HIGH. THESE WILL YIELD NEAR OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY; THE TIMING OF WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ACTUALLY
CLEARS THE AREA NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80'S OR LOW 90'S ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
WINDOW, WITH A REMARKABLE SIGNAL IN THE EC EFI AND NAEFS FOR
ANOMALOUS MAX AND MIN TEMPS. EC EFI SHOWS CONSISTENT 0.9+ WITH
SOT OF OVER 1.0 FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NAEFS SHOWS NEAR RECORD 500MB HEIGHTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH 99TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SO OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS FLAGGING THIS PERIOD AS ONE OF
THE MORE ANOMALOUS TEMP PATTERNS WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE.
EXACTLY WHEN THIS RIDGING WILL CLEAR IS BECOMING A BIT MORE
CERTAIN, WITH GEFS AND ECE BOTH PUSHING A SLOW MOVING FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY-MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NOTABLE COOL-
DOWN INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LOTS TO
FIGURE OUT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SHEAR; SPC HAS A
SMALL AREA OF THE CSRA IN A DAY 5 OUTLOOK. NEAR- BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP
TROUGHING SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS SEEN AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING THAT WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING AT
5-10 KTS WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK BEING SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE MAINLY BEEN BETWEEN 3-6 MILES WITH SPOTTY
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO 1-3 MILES. THESE RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 14-15Z BEFORE THE DECK BEGINS TO RAISE WITH SOME
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER THIS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
8-12 KTS FROM THE SE TO SSE WITH GUSTS TOWARD 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 20-22Z BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF THIS IN THE TAF, BUT WILL REEVALUATE THIS WITH
THE 15Z AMD. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, 25-35 KTS OF FLOW AT
850MB SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BUT
DESPITE THIS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 5-7Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT OF
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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