134   
FXUS62 KCAE 021833  
AFDCAE  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
233 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND  
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS   
THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.   
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER   
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
  
KEY MESSAGE(S):   
  
- WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A  
  POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
  THE EVENING, MAINLY IN WESTERN SPOTS.   
  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH THE CWA FROM NW   
GA INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CORNER OF SC ALONG THE COAST AS UPPER   
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FA. LOW STRATUS HAS MIXED   
OUT AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED, BUT WE KEEP SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL   
CLOUDS INTO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE   
OUT OF THE SE TO SSE THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH   
AND AIDING IN INCREASING MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC   
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH PWAT'S THAT REACH   
UPWARDS OF 1.4-1.6" BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH RES GUIDANCE   
CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED TO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND   
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS IT   
LIFTS TOWARD THE UPSTATE MAINLY AFTER 3-5PM WHERE ENHANCED   
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE FRONT. RECENT HRRR  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 1600-2100 J/KG OF CAPE SETTING UP   
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES   
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CSRA INTO THE CENTRAL   
MIDLANDS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN   
SPOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK (AROUND 20-30 KTS)   
AND WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING, ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT   
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY, STRONG ISENTROPIC   
LIFT, AND A LIFTING WEAK WARM FRONT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND   
INTO THE EVENING, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE,   
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN FA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT IS AND INTO   
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. WITH MODERATE DCAPE VALUES IN PLACE AND   
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SOME STRONGER GUSTS   
COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT THAT FORMS.   
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THOUGH MAY AID IN LIMITING   
DESTABILIZATION, AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE DECREASED IN OVERALL   
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE.   
  
THIS ACTIVITY WRAPS UP THIS EVENING BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL   
MOISTURE BRINGS ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS LIKELY DEVELOPING  
DESPITE INCREASING 850 MB FLOW TO AROUND 25-35 KTS AND THUS   
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS   
TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
  
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
  
- STEADY WARMUP BEGINS.  
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY.  
  
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW AND   
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL  
CONSEQUENTLY BUILD AS THE BROAD 500MB FLOW PATTERN ALOFT   
AMPLIFIES AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS DIG INTO THE SE CONUS. AS A   
RESULT, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE   
FORECAST AREA AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S, DESPITE   
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. ISENTROPIC   
LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME, BUT ENOUGH  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN THE UPSTATE.   
DURING PEAK HEATING, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE   
WESTERN MIDLANDS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST AREAS DRY. WITH  
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRONGER, REMOVED POPS FROM THE WESTERN  
MIDLANDS.  
  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE  
STRENGTHENS A BIT AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. SUBSIDENCE APPEARS  
STRONGER THAN THURSDAY AND MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE  
LOW-LEVELS AROUND 850MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE   
MIDLANDS. ECMWF EFI INDICATES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SO  
WENT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NBM MEANS, NEAR RECORD HIGHS.   
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.  
  
  
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
  
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
  
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS    
  THROUGH SUNDAY.   
  
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY DEEP  
MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN EXTREMELY STRONG OFFSHORE   
SURFACE HIGH. THESE WILL YIELD NEAR OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH   
TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING   
THROUGH SUNDAY; THE TIMING OF WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ACTUALLY   
CLEARS THE AREA NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND ITS  
ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. THE NBM POPS  
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS, HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO   
THE 80'S OR LOW 90'S ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS WINDOW, WITH A   
REMARKABLE SIGNAL IN THE EC EFI AND NAEFS FOR ANOMALOUS MAX AND   
MIN TEMPS. EC EFI SHOWS CONSISTENT 0.9+ WITH SOT OF OVER 1.0 FOR  
BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS. NAEFS SHOWS NEAR RECORD 500MB HEIGHTS   
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS AND  
TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SO OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS FLAGGING   
THIS PERIOD AS ONE OF THE MORE ANOMALOUS TEMP PATTERNS WE HAVE   
SEEN IN AWHILE.   
  
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW  
OUT WEST MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE DEEP  
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS SOME SEVERE   
POTENTIAL BUT LOTS TO FIGURE OUT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING   
AND SHEAR; SPC HAS A SMALL AREA OF THE CSRA IN A DAY 5 OUTLOOK  
(SUNDAY).THE ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLITUDE   
WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAN GEFS. CMC ENSEMBLE APPEARS   
SLOWER TOO. SO FRONT MAY HANG UP IN THE AREA AND QPF COULD BE   
HIGHER BUT IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES 1-1.5 INCHES   
POSSIBLE. A NOTABLE COOL-DOWN INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE AFTER THE   
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT   
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP TROUGHING SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE EASTERN   
CONUS.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
  
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS   
INTO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS RETURN   
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER STRATUS DECK LIKELY.   
  
MOST RESTRICTIONS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION BUT   
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 2,500 TO 3,000   
FT ARE STILL BEING SEEN NORTH OF OGB MAINLY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS   
HAVE PICKED UP TO 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TOWARD 20 KTS BEING SEEN.   
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK IS ALSO BEING SEEN PUSHING   
INLAND FROM THE COAST BUT THESE ARE LOOKING TO KEEP AROUND 3,500  
TO 5,000 FT AND THUS NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS MOISTURE   
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ARE  
STILL POSSIBLE AFTER 20-22Z MAINLY BUT COVERAGE AND CHANCES   
CONTINUE TO BE TOO LIMITED TO ADD MENTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS   
TIME. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, 25-35 KTS OF FLOW AT 850MB SHOULD   
ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BUT DESPITE THIS,   
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING   
MAINLY AFTER 5-7Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED  
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LESS   
LIKELY WITH THIS DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDS. CONDITIONS THEN   
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING.   
  
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT OF   
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED   
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY   
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN SUNDAY.  
  
  
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab SC Page

The Nexlab GA Page

Main Text Page