966
FXUS62 KCAE 030116
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
916 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MAJOR WARMUP BEGINS THURSDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, FOLLOWED
BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING, STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO THE
UPSTATE OF SC OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE , EXPECTING
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS LIKELY DEVELOPING DESPITE
INCREASING 850 MB FLOW TO AROUND 25-35 KTS AND THUS INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STEADY WARMUP BEGINS.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY.
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BUILD AS THE BROAD 500MB FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
AMPLIFIES AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS DIG INTO THE SE CONUS. AS A
RESULT, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 80S, DESPITE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME, BUT ENOUGH
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN THE UPSTATE.
DURING PEAK HEATING, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST AREAS DRY. WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRONGER, REMOVED POPS FROM THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE
STRENGTHENS A BIT AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
STRONGER THAN THURSDAY AND MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AROUND 850MB. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE
MIDLANDS. ECMWF EFI INDICATES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SO
WENT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NBM MEANS, NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY DEEP
MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN EXTREMELY STRONG OFFSHORE
SURFACE HIGH. THESE WILL YIELD NEAR OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY; THE TIMING OF WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ACTUALLY
CLEARS THE AREA NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS. THE NBM POPS
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS, HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80'S OR LOW 90'S ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS WINDOW, WITH A
REMARKABLE SIGNAL IN THE EC EFI AND NAEFS FOR ANOMALOUS MAX AND
MIN TEMPS. EC EFI SHOWS CONSISTENT 0.9+ WITH SOT OF OVER 1.0 FOR
BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS. NAEFS SHOWS NEAR RECORD 500MB HEIGHTS
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SO OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS FLAGGING
THIS PERIOD AS ONE OF THE MORE ANOMALOUS TEMP PATTERNS WE HAVE
SEEN IN AWHILE.
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
OUT WEST MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL BUT LOTS TO FIGURE OUT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND SHEAR; SPC HAS A SMALL AREA OF THE CSRA IN A DAY 5 OUTLOOK
(SUNDAY).THE ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLITUDE
WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAN GEFS. CMC ENSEMBLE APPEARS
SLOWER TOO. SO FRONT MAY HANG UP IN THE AREA AND QPF COULD BE
HIGHER BUT IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES 1-1.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. A NOTABLE COOL-DOWN INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP TROUGHING SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE EVENING, THEN CEILINGS DEVELOP
AND LOWER INTO MVFR AS STRATUS DECK FORMS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO
VFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ON THURSDAY.
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TERMINALS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION ON FORECASTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
INLAND WILL HELP TO DEVELOP ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
LATER TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE MORNING. FOG SHOULD BE LESS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONG ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED MIXING. THE JET WILL BE AROUND 25-35
KTS AT 850MB, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER DAY WITH THE THREAT OF
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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