386
FXUS62 KCAE 261943
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS-STORMS.
1930Z UPDATE: SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA
AND ARE APPROACHING THE TIP OF LANCASTER COUNTY. WHILE NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED THUS FAR, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN TN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT BUT THE REGION IS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
LIMITED CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TOUGH
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTION AND BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.
HI-RES GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MINIMAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS FORMING ON
THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO DIMINISH AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE 00Z-03Z TIME
FRAME, SO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER, IF A MATURE
STORM CAN DEVELOP IT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG AND
COULD PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRY
AIR PRESENT.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING LIFTS EASTWARD, THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY CAUSING A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. COLD, DRY ADVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT SUNDAY BUT
A NOTABLE TEMP-MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE PEE DEE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID-70'S AND LOW 40'S RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE CSRA WILL STAY IN
THE 80'S FOR HIGHS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50'S. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
FOR MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL START TO NORMALIZE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 REGION-WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS.
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE, SO DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH ALLOWS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
ONLY SOME VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE QUITE WARM, 10-12 F ABOVE
AVERAGE, HIGHLIGHTED WELL WITH THE EC EFI AND NAEFS SHOWING A
90TH+ PERCENTILE AIRMASS. THE NEXT NOTABLE RAIN CHANCE IS FRIDAY
AS A MODEST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAGS A FRONT
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CUMULUS CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS 18Z-20Z BUT SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH DEEP MIXING OCCURRING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THINK FOG CHANCES ARE LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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