458
FXUS62 KCAE 262316
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
716 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST
HOUR AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT CONVECTION IN THE UPSTATE IS ALSO
RAPIDLY DECAYING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY. IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE CAA TO TAKE OVER
SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY VARY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING LIFTS EASTWARD, THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY CAUSING A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. COLD, DRY ADVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT SUNDAY BUT
A NOTABLE TEMP-MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE PEE DEE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID-70'S AND LOW 40'S RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE CSRA WILL STAY IN
THE 80'S FOR HIGHS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50'S. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
FOR MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL START TO NORMALIZE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 REGION-WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS.
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE, SO DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH ALLOWS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
ONLY SOME VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE QUITE WARM, 10-12 F ABOVE
AVERAGE, HIGHLIGHTED WELL WITH THE EC EFI AND NAEFS SHOWING A
90TH+ PERCENTILE AIRMASS. THE NEXT NOTABLE RAIN CHANCE IS FRIDAY
AS A MODEST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAGS A FRONT
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION TURNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNRISE AS MIXING BEGINS IN LOW-LEVELS. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WIND, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. FOG CHANCES ARE LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page