962
FXUS62 KCAE 270541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST
HOUR AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT CONVECTION IN THE UPSTATE IS ALSO
RAPIDLY DECAYING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY. IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE CAA TO TAKE OVER
SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY VARY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING LIFTS EASTWARD, THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY CAUSING A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. COLD, DRY ADVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT SUNDAY BUT
A NOTABLE TEMP-MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE PEE DEE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID-70'S AND LOW 40'S RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE CSRA WILL STAY IN
THE 80'S FOR HIGHS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50'S. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
FOR MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL START TO NORMALIZE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 REGION-WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS.
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE, SO DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH ALLOWS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
ONLY SOME VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE QUITE WARM, 10-12 F ABOVE
AVERAGE, HIGHLIGHTED WELL WITH THE EC EFI AND NAEFS SHOWING A
90TH+ PERCENTILE AIRMASS. THE NEXT NOTABLE RAIN CHANCE IS FRIDAY
AS A MODEST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAGS A FRONT
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT IS DEFINITELY TAKING ITS SWEET TIME PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA, WITH THE FRONT STILL A WHILE AWAY FROM PUSHING
THROUGH THE TAF SITES. EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND IT, GENERALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. GOING
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS OR OGB
AHEAD OF THIS AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND WE HAVE HAD SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS "COLD" ADVECTION AND INCREASED LOW- LEVEL
MIXING WITH THE SUN RISING AIDS IN MIXING DOWN A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD, WITH WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER 15Z OR SO. THE PERIOD IS
SIMPLE AFTER THAT - LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page