353
FXUS62 KCAE 270740
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
340 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A BEAUTIFUL DAY OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LAZILY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION, ANALYZED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3A. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN AS IT DOES SO. DEWPOINTS FALL OFF SHARPLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH MID 40S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED IN CENTRAL NC. WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BECOME PRETTY GUSTY FOR AROUND 2-4 HOURS AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WORKS ITS
WAY THROUGH. BEYOND THIS, THE DAY LOOKS TREMENDOUS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH THIS
AIDED BY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOK FOR UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING TO DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 1 INCH WILL RESULT IN RAIN- FREE
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DURING MUCH
OF THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. STRONG
MODEL CONSENSUS IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WED-FRI
TIME PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT IS DEFINITELY TAKING ITS SWEET TIME PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA, WITH THE FRONT STILL A WHILE AWAY FROM PUSHING
THROUGH THE TAF SITES. EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND IT, GENERALLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. GOING
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS OR OGB
AHEAD OF THIS AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND WE HAVE HAD SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS "COLD" ADVECTION AND INCREASED LOW- LEVEL
MIXING WITH THE SUN RISING AIDS IN MIXING DOWN A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD, WITH WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER 15Z OR SO. THE PERIOD IS
SIMPLE AFTER THAT - LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page