971
FXUS62 KCAE 271525 AAA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY TODAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN SC INTO CENTRAL GA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
LOWER CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CHARLESTON TO NEAR SWAINSBORO GA
HELPING DELINEATE THE FRONT. ALOFT, WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. SKIES ARE A BIT LESS CLOUDY
THAN EXPECTED AND THE MORE SHALLOW COOL AIR HAS MIXED OUT BETTER
ACROSS THE CSRA WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 70S AT
AUGUSTA. EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE
CSRA. A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY AS PWATS HAVE FALLEN BELOW AND
INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND COULD KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA,ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT,ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NEAR
CALM WINDS AND MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH A DRIER
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHELTERED
LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING TO DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 1 INCH WILL RESULT IN RAIN- FREE
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DURING MUCH
OF THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL COME ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. STRONG
MODEL CONSENSUS IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WED-FRI
TIME PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING - EXPECT PERIODIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT
ALL SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. THE PERIOD IS SIMPLE AFTER THAT -
LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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