498
FXUS62 KCAE 271816
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY TODAY
- COOLER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA WITH NO LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS MOVING
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY AS PWATS HAVE FALLEN BELOW AND
INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND COULD KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA,ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT ANY RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT,ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH NEAR
CALM WINDS AND MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH A DRIER
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHELTERED
LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER RIDGING TO DOMINATE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE. WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY AND FURTHER PUSH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
UP. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80'S MONDAY AND MID-80'S FOR TUESDAY
AS DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50'S. BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE AREA AND NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING AT LOW
LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FURTHER WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE A NOTABLE TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80'S AND DEW POINTS LIKELY BACK INTO
THE 60'S; EC EFI JUMPS ABOVE 0.9 FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE PERIOD,
BUT SOT IS LOW, SO ANOMALOUSLY HOT BUT NOT NEARING RECORDS. AS
A RESULT, THE CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE,
DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW- MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN UNDER
THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY FOR THURSDAY. BUT GIVEN THE BROAD
SUBSIDENCE STILL IN PLACE, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW POP UP SHOWERS-
STORMS WITH REGIONALLY LOW POP'S STILL.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG A
SURFACE FRONT INTO OUR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL-STORMS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND FALLING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, THERE WILL BE A STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. CSU SEVERE PROBS SHOW A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE IN
POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY ROUTINE, HYBRID PULSE-ORGANIZED LOW END
SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING UPPER TROUGH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET OVERNIGHT THEN
PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY BY 14Z TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page