378
FXUS62 KCAE 272330
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
730 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD KEEP SOME
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA, BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW, LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS,
AND MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
CSRA. A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY COLD AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER RIDGING TO DOMINATE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE. WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY AND FURTHER PUSH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
UP. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80'S MONDAY AND MID-80'S FOR TUESDAY
AS DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50'S. BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE AREA AND NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING AT LOW
LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FURTHER WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE A NOTABLE TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80'S AND DEW POINTS LIKELY BACK INTO
THE 60'S; EC EFI JUMPS ABOVE 0.9 FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE PERIOD,
BUT SOT IS LOW, SO ANOMALOUSLY HOT BUT NOT NEARING RECORDS. AS
A RESULT, THE CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE,
DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW- MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN UNDER
THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY FOR THURSDAY. BUT GIVEN THE BROAD
SUBSIDENCE STILL IN PLACE, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW POP UP SHOWERS-
STORMS WITH REGIONALLY LOW POP'S STILL.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRAG A
SURFACE FRONT INTO OUR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL-STORMS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND FALLING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, THERE WILL BE A STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. CSU SEVERE PROBS SHOW A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE IN
POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY ROUTINE, HYBRID PULSE-ORGANIZED LOW END
SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, IN PLACE. WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE
EAST ON MONDAY BY 14Z TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY FOG AGAIN AT AGS AND OGB ALONG THE RIVERS,
WITH THE USUAL BOUNCING AROUND OF VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED THOUGH, SO MAINLY
VFR AT ALL OTHER TAF LOCATIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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