764
FXUS62 KCAE 281047
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE TO START THE WEEK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS DOMINATING THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FRONT FROM SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
HAS SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND GENERALLY STALLED, WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND IT. THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF
THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIR TODAY AS SURFACE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. EXPECT SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION TODAY, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TONIGHT, COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
- TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER RIDGING TO DOMINATE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND
EACH DAY, REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FURTHER WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES LIKELY
TO PROPAGATE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE, THIS COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM, BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG. CONTINUED WARMING, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEK, AND DRIVE A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. LREF SUPPORTS MEAN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO MODERATE LEVELS.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MARGINALLY STRONG-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTED BY CSU SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
THE 5-15% RANGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DRY AIR
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS AND SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD LOOKS AS QUIET AS IT CURRENTLY IS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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