091  
FXUS62 KCAE 281531  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1131 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.  
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN  
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD  
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
 
A SPECTACULAR SPRING DAY IS EXPECTED WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR  
MASS IN PLACE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND  
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DELMARVA  
REGION AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY  
FASTER THAN FORECAST SO MAKING SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT  
BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED  
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD  
SUPPORT LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.  
- TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER RIDGING TO DOMINATE  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION DURING THE  
PERIOD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS  
EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS  
FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND  
EACH DAY, REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH LOW AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- FURTHER WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR LATE IN  
THE WEEK.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES LIKELY  
TO PROPAGATE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COMBINED WITH  
INCREASING MOISTURE, THIS COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM, BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS  
TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG. CONTINUED WARMING, WITH WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE OHIO  
VALLEY LATE WEEK, AND DRIVE A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA  
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. LREF SUPPORTS MEAN PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON  
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO MODERATE LEVELS.  
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MARGINALLY STRONG-  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTED BY CSU SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN  
THE 5-15% RANGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH A MUCH  
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DRY AIR  
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH SOME HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS AND SOME MID-LEVEL  
CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD LOOKS AS QUIET AS IT CURRENTLY IS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE  
SOME FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH  
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY  
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED  
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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