553
FXUS62 KCAE 281807
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FAIR AND DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNFOLDING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 UNDER SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY PATTERN, BUT WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPS.
HIGH'S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80'S
BUT PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
NAEFS AND EC MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THIS
AIRMASS AS WE HAVE APPROACHED, BUT STILL 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
BOTH TEMPS AND HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH COOLER AND DRY AIR TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
- STRONG TO SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE STRONG RIDGE PATTERN,
WITH THE GEFS AND EC ALL HOLDING THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS SLOW AND STEADY LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION
HELPS OVERCOME THE STILL STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY,
RELATIVELY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER, HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH LREF MEAN CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG. SHEAR WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL NOT BE
STRONG, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL
ORGANIZATION; COMBINING THIS TOGETHER AND YOU GET WHY THE CSU
PROBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH AND
FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWING FURTHER,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT AGS/DNL.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHOULD
PERSIST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND COULD RESULT IN SOME MORNING STRATUS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE STRATUS SOUTHWEST OF THE
AGS/DNL AREA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS
DEVELOPS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THIS. ALSO, FOG PRONE AGS MAY HAVE ITS TYPICAL INTERMITTENT
VSBYS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RIVER FOG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS FORECAST. WINDS PICK BACK UP
BY 15Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE
CIRRUS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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