440
FXUS62 KCAE 290545
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY,
WITH SOME SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FAIR AND DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD
WHILE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WORKS IN FROM THE COASTLINE. DEWPOINTS
ARE JUMPING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S IN SOME SPOTS AS THIS IS HAPPENING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE TONIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY FOG INTO PORTIONS OF THE CSRA,
BUT IT SHOULDN'T BE TOO WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY PATTERN, BUT WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPS.
HIGH'S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80'S
BUT PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MITIGATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
NAEFS AND EC MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THIS
AIRMASS AS WE HAVE APPROACHED, BUT STILL 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
BOTH TEMPS AND HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH COOLER AND DRY AIR TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
- STRONG TO SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE STRONG RIDGE PATTERN,
WITH THE GEFS AND EC ALL HOLDING THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS SLOW AND STEADY LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION
HELPS OVERCOME THE STILL STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY,
RELATIVELY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER, HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH LREF MEAN CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG. SHEAR WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL NOT BE
STRONG, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL
ORGANIZATION; COMBINING THIS TOGETHER AND YOU GET WHY THE CSU
PROBS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH AND
FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWING FURTHER,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS DOMINANCE ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHED
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES A WHILE AGO, BRIEFLY INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SURFACE MOISTURE. THIS HAS REALLY NOT
RESULTED IN ANYTHING AT THIS POINT, THOUGH, AND ISN'T EXPECTED
TO YIELD AVIATION PROBLEMS TONIGHT. AGS/DNL MAY GET CLOSE TO
SOME STRATOCUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS THAT IS DEVELOPING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. IN GENERAL, THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY, THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS
OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FALL
OFF AFTER 00Z AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES CARRYING US INTO THE
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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